Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 1.977601 2.296645 2.649697 3.069233 3.554113 4.096868 4.750537
2026-02-08 1.394995 1.799529 2.294747 2.945091 3.776434 4.803520 6.169268
2026-02-15 1.074651 1.510854 2.090774 2.917081 4.063612 5.598123 7.808989
2026-02-22 0.903014 1.364771 2.022674 3.026411 4.517927 6.651920 9.938840
2026-03-01 0.745961 1.200840 1.889234 3.003851 4.761677 7.426396 11.775016
2026-03-08 0.622451 1.060194 1.759316 2.953008 4.938000 8.105799 13.547747
2026-03-15 0.536658 0.962167 1.675801 2.954341 5.184915 8.913895 15.623863
2026-03-22 0.505195 0.949074 1.727377 3.184136 5.838756 10.467477 19.153600
2026-03-29 0.453756 0.890826 1.689972 3.248617 6.207552 11.574835 22.051434
2026-04-05 0.409043 0.837081 1.651197 3.301758 6.558026 12.687772 25.102730
2026-04-12 0.363782 0.774504 1.585582 3.291730 6.782950 13.590415 27.869539
2026-04-19 0.322856 0.713875 1.514242 3.258158 6.953192 14.403664 30.561351
2026-04-26 0.271074 0.623610 1.372818 3.066469 6.788048 14.559176 32.008596
2026-05-03 0.234219 0.560130 1.278641 2.962360 6.795879 15.078313 34.316404
2026-05-10 0.208884 0.518530 1.225688 2.941029 6.981915 16.002263 37.645048
2026-05-17 0.195887 0.503817 1.231005 3.053696 7.488420 17.698910 42.960868
2026-05-24 0.175981 0.468662 1.182942 3.031775 7.674777 18.693480 46.786284
2026-05-31 0.156984 0.432498 1.126734 2.980751 7.782166 19.516633 50.318679
2026-06-07 0.143017 0.407115 1.093404 2.982196 8.020460 20.686354 54.876436
2026-06-14 0.141202 0.414453 1.145301 3.214162 8.887401 23.530588 64.103735
2026-06-21 0.131976 0.399425 1.135670 3.279255 9.321786 25.333556 70.868295
2026-06-28 0.123138 0.384003 1.122609 3.332895 9.733238 27.132971 77.884283
2026-07-05 0.112829 0.362410 1.088953 3.322775 9.964901 28.482789 83.858644